It’s The Chicken Or The Egg Again. Will Direct Care Expand Proportionately To Demand For Preventative Care?

The president’s signature legislation aims to provide every American with affordable health insurance options, but there’s been an increase in doctors becoming direct pay or cash-only practices recently.

“There’s no doubt that one of the driving forces behind direct-pay practices is frustration and anger with health care among physicians,” says Michael Smith, medical director and chief medical editor at WebMD. “More and more doctors feel they are ready to quit the system and start practicing off the grid.”

But what about patient demand for preventative care? Something that fee-for-service medicine DOES NOT ENCOURAGE — and that Direct Care thrives on.

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Elephant In The Room — The Projected Primary Care Shortage

Projecting future physician workforce needs is a challenging calculation. You have to consider multiple variables to avoid missing the mark. In the mid-1990s, the American Medical Association confidently predicted that the penetration of managed care would lead to a large “physician surplus” and convinced Congress to cap the number of graduate medical education (GME) positions subsidized by the Medicare program. By the look of things today, that might not have been such a wise move.

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AAFP Releases Detailed Projection Of Primary Care Physician Shortage

The AAFP reported on a recent study outlining the projected family doctor shortage that is facing our nation. According to the organization, “The projections rely on a combination of factors to gauge current and future workforce needs on a state-by-state basis, focusing heavily on increased patient demand that is likely to result from an aging population, overall population growth and coverage expansions due to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.”

The projections are very specific. For example, according to the projection for Arizona, the state demands an additional 1,941 primary care physicians by 2030. This is 150 percent of the current number of doctors. According to the research, 1,466 primary care physicians are needed because of population growth, 360 because of increased utilization, and 115 because of insurance expansions that occur as part of the Affordable Care Act.

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